Relative Strength Index

Below is the daily 5-year Treasury relative strength index over the last 14 trading days. A reading of 65 or higher is considered an oversold market and a reading of 35 is an overbought market.

**9/17/26: 2-year Treasury Yield at 4.69% (down -5bps today) and RSI @ 74, Fed has to hike 158bps or 6.3 more times in the next 2-years for a break-even to the FRB EBA rate = OVERSOLD CONDITION. The Fed dot plot from 9/16/26 indicates one more hike in 2026, no change in 2027, and one cut in 2028 **


Date Yield RSI

2025
9/16  3.41  28.67
1/13  4.61  74.80

5Yr
4/27  3.94  53.82
4/28  3.97  56.53
4/29  4.05  62.78
4/30  4.02  59.33
5/01  4.02  59.33
5/04  4.08  63.92
5/05  4.08  63.93
5/06  3.99  53.42
5/07  4.04  57.59
5/08  4.02  55.45
5/11  4.07  59.50
5/12  4.12  63.11
5/13  4.12  63.11
5/14  4.13  63.86
5/15  4.26  71.85
5/18  4.27  72.35
5/19  4.32  74.78
5/20  4.22  62.84
5/21  4.25  64.55
5/22  4.27  65.87
5/26  4.19  57.45
5/27  4.17  55.54
5/28  4.15  53.62
5/29  4.13  51.70
6/01  4.18  55.95
6/02  4.17  54.90
6/03  4.21  58.24
6/04  4.18  54.94
6/05  4.29  63.17
6/08  4.29  63.17
6/09  4.26  59.72
6/10  4.27  60.50
6/11  4.18  51.00
6/12  4.21  53.61
6/15  4.18  50.70
6/16  4.16  48.79
6/17  4.27  58.11
6/18  4.23  54.24
6/22  4.29  58.67
6/23  4.27  56.69
6/24  4.17  47.99
6/25  4.15  46.45
6/26  4.12  44.16
6/29  4.14  46.06
6/30  4.19  50.59
7/01  4.24  54.69
7/02  4.23  53.74
7/06  4.21  51.79
7/07  4.27  56.87
7/08  4.31  59.89
7/09  4.27  55.68
7/10  4.30  58.06
7/13  4.37  63.05
7/14  4.31  56.80
7/15  4.26  52.16
7/16  4.28  53.79
7/17  4.28  53.79
7/20  4.33  57.93
7/21  4.37  60.95
7/22  4.42  63.89
7/23  4.46  66.77
7/24  4.43  63.16
7/27  4.40  59.68
7/28  4.35  54.32
7/29  4.37  56.03
7/30  4.38  56.89
7/31  4.45  62.46
8/03  4.40  56.82
8/04  4.33  50.01
8/05  4.33  50.01
8/06  4.40  56.12
8/07  4.35  51.30
8/10  4.41  56.16
8/11  4.39  54.22
8/12  4.38  53.23
8/13  4.32  47.61
8/14  4.36  51.31
8/17  4.38  53.09
8/18  4.37  52.06
8/19  4.35  49.99
8/20  4.39  53.95
8/21  4.43  57.58
8/24  4.41  55.25
8/25  4.35  48.84
8/26  4.37  50.88
8/27  4.38  51.92
8/28  4.48  60.81
8/31  4.49  61.57
9/01  4.55  65.87
9/02  4.54  64.58
9/03  4.52  61.95
9/04  4.54  63.55
9/08  4.57  65.88
9/09  4.61  68.72
9/10  4.75  76.21
9/11  4.78  77.46
9/14  4.80  78.28
9/15  4.83  79.48
9/16  4.89  81.50
9/17  4.81  70.61